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Thursday, September 1, 2016

Daily update 9/1

Different month, same old thing.

SPX made a slightly lower low today, but bounced back into the prior trading range.  It reached the lower channel line, but the low was 6 points above the 50 SMA.  The 50 would be a better place to bounce from.  The breadth was just slightly negative.  New highs came in at 100 and new lows picked up a bit to 22.  That is the highest the lows have been since 7/6 which was before SPX broke out to new highs.  The market is weakening internally even though price is holding up.

The -DI line keeps climbing along with ADX.  I still find it odd how ADX is showing a strong downtrend without price really going down much.  Curious. 

R2000 turned its short term trend to neutral today.  Tomorrow is the day everybody is waiting for.  What will the employment data look like?  I will refrain from speculating about it.  We should know much more about what Sept. has in store for us tomorrow morning. 

The national ISM number came in below 50 after several months above.  Not good, but not a death blow to the economy yet.  However, auto sales were abysmal.  That might be a problem for future production.  How any economist can say this economy is getting stronger is beyond me.  It is pretty common to have one last gasp before rolling over into a recession.  The last few months may have been one of those.  One thing I can say for absolute certainty is there are no signs of a sustainable uptick in the economy.   What strikes me so odd is every money manager survey I see never mentions a U.S. recession as a worry.  Here we are seven years since the last recession, the economy is the weakest it has been the entire time and nobody even mentions the possibility of a recession.  Really.


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