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Thursday, August 4, 2016

Daily update 8/4 Factory orders

Another sleepy day.

Most indexes barely moved today.  I guess many people are either on the beach or waiting until after tomorrow's employment report to make any moves.  The breadth was slightly positive.  New highs increased considerably to 173.  Price is still holding the 20 SMA.

The futures ran into resistance at the broken 20 SMA.  However, they did not roll over and continue the decline.  That should be a positive.

The red count rolled over today and is back below 50.  That suggests the bulls have stepped in and plan on taking the market higher. 

Unless overnight news causes problems I believe the bulls will try to test the highs.  The employment report could possibly shake things up.  I think last month's strength is unlikely to be repeated.  I don't know if an unusually weak report would be good or bad for stocks.  The bears still need to get SPX below 2147 to turn the short term trend down.

Orders for consumer durable goods were very bad again.

This is 18 months of negative YOY prints.  This streak is so long the YOY comparisons are already being compared against weak data and are still negative.  One has to wonder how the U.S. is not in recession.  Still no uptick.


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