If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Daily update 7/19 Dollar break out

Another sleepy day.

SPX tested yesterday's low multiple times today.  Each time we got down there dip buyers showed up.  However, they never pushed it up to test the recent highs.  Volume was light once again as we are in wait and see mode.  Breadth was -56%.  New highs dropped again down to 154.  The last few days had a really, really tiny range.  That type of action can mark a short term top.  It may take some news to get an upside range expansion move. 

That is a very narrow range overnight as well as the day session.  We have paused almost long enough for the 20 SMA to catch up.  It is close enough to test it now.  Then we will see if we launch a new leg higher or end up breaking below it and starting a pullback.

The green count is out of overbought and getting close to neutral.  A lot of times it will cross below the 50 threshold before the next launch. 

The futures have not touched the 20 SMA and the green count has not gotten down to 50 yet.  I don't know if we have consolidated enough to launch a new leg yet.  Another sleepy day tomorrow could do it.  The last two days the bulls defended the prior day's low.  Until they stop doing that the bears are going to be out of luck.

The dollar broke out of its consolidation it had been forming the last three weeks just below its 200 DMA.  It came in contact with the downtrend line that has formed since last fall.  A pause here would be normal, but I expect it will eventually break that trend line and head up to test its bull market highs.  That would be unexpected by a lot of people.  I have talked about this enough that none of you all should be surprised.


No comments:


The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.