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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Daily update 6/29

This may be a little too far too fast.  I guess we will see.


SPX came within a few points of the 50 and 100 SMAs.  The breadth was strong again at +82%.  New highs spiked up to 302.  That is the highest since Jan. 2015.  It was just above the 299 level reached in March of 2015.  It would be interesting to know how many of those were common stocks at all time highs.  I think a lot of commodity stocks have been beaten down for so long some of them are making 52 week highs now, but are still well off all time highs.  There were probably a lot of closed end funds as well.  If SPX breaks out to new highs and keeps going this will be looked back on as a bullish sign.  If the market fails again it will be forgotten.  I don't see any sign the clouds that have kept the market in check for more then a year are clearing.  One could say the brexit result is yet another cloud.  I suspect it will be another failure.


The futures were just above the 200 SMA at the 4 PM close.  They shot up again after the close and ended the day above the 50 and 100 SMAs.  There is no confirmation of a break of any of those MAs yet.  I have no idea what the excitement was about. 


The red count has come back to neutral so the oversold condition has been worked off.  The bulls have more work to do to get the market in a positive state though.

A lot of people piled in before the brexit vote expecting a remain vote and the markets would rejoice.  They woke up to a huge gap down.  If that was not bad enough they woke up the next day to another big gap down.  I sense there was a reluctance to sell into the weakness both days.  I believe the overnight pumps in the futures are an attempt to get price back up near where it was so they can exit long positions.  It does not take all that much volume to move the futures overnight.  Especially if a lot of people are in the same boat and want to see prices move in their desired direction.  SPY got back to the 6/24 high.  Sometimes the edges of those gaps can be stiff resistance.  They have moved the futures on up into the gap overnight.  I have no idea where they will be in the morning.  I suspect a lot of the buying the last two days was short covering, but there is no way to prove that.  I don't know exactly where the trapped longs will start selling again.  Somewhere between here and the high the day before the brexit vote.  I think the odds are pretty good there will be many sellers.  I guess we will see.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.