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Thursday, June 23, 2016

Daily update 6/23

Finally the vote is over.  SPX had a big ramp up at the end of the day.  Markets clearly expect the remain crowd to win.  The question is really by how much.  A close vote will hang over Britain like a cloud.  I heard them say on CNBC that polling companies told them some hedge funds had hired them to do exit polls.  There were no publicly available exit poll results.  That certainly seems fair to me!  I am wondering if the late day ramp in the U.S. was because the hedge funds got enough data to suggest a remain vote, but European markets were already closed.  While markets sometimes get things wrong this one would be a colossal error if the exit crowd wins.

Here we are with another test of the highs.  Breadth was +80%.  People were piling in for sure.  New highs popped up to 206.  When breadth is this strong near highs there is always a risk of a buying climax.  You can't really tell until afterwards though.  If the market ends up reversing hard in the next few days that is what it was.

The futures kept on running another 15 points after the 4 PM close.  Very strange move.  Certainly smells like insider info.  In after hours trading they have given that big move all back.  Very strange indeed.

The green count is almost back to overbought, but not quite.  There is more room here.

As I write this at 8 PM the remain vote is winning 52.8 to 47.2 with 1.6% of precincts reporting.  That is probably enough to indicate remain will win as expected, but by what margin.  With SPX testing the highs there is probably some risk of a sell the news event tomorrow.  I will just be glad to get on with things and see what the market plans to do.

The ramp into the close turned the short term trends in SPX and R2000 up and COMPX to neutral.

Addendum:  At 8:30 with 2.6% leave is ahead 51.4 to 48.6%.  That probably explains why the futures gave back all the gains after hours.  If that result holds through the night tomorrow will be very interesting.


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