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Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Daily update 6/21 Tightening CRE lending standards

Wait mode.  This is going to be short.

The futures are stuck between the 20 and 50 MAs.  They are tightening up for a big move one way or the other.

The green count got a positive cross today.  This signifies the oversold condition has now been completely eliminated.  Now it is a question of whether the bulls want to show up and push prices higher or not.

With the big brexit vote on Thursday it is possible tomorrow is another do nothing day.  It looks like the markets have discounted a remain vote so the only big move would likely be down in case of an exit vote.  With SPX near the upper end of the trading range it is possible the vote itself is a sell the news event regardless of the outcome.  I guess we will see.  The vote can't get here soon enough for me.

I ran across this interesting chart.


There are only 3 other times in the 26 years of data that standards tightened this much.  All three instances were associated with recessions.  This does not mean a recession is imminent.  Just that in the next year or so a recession is high odds.


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