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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

? 2/22/21

Short term

Dn 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

Dn 2/22/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Daily update 6/15 Industrial production

No FED meeting bounce at all!


I can't remember the last time the day before and the day of a FED meeting were both negative.  There is such a positive bias around those two days that I can't imagine it is a good thing to be down.  I guess we will see.  Despite SPX being down the breadth was +60%.  New highs picked up a bit to 92.  I think this was largely closed end fund related again as TLT is hanging around 52 week highs.
This was day 3 below the 50 SMA.  Still no confirmed break though.


The futures tried to rebound off the 100 SMA early in the day.  However, they were met with resistance and eventually sold off late in the day.  They closed below the 100, but have not confirmed a break yet.


The red count dropped slightly and remains below oversold levels. 

The market still seems to be bugged.  I don't know if there is more to it then the brexit vote or not.  The bears are in control in the short term.  The dip buyers have vanished for the moment.  The last swing low was 2025 and the 200 DMA is at 2016.  That looks like the next support area.  Obviously a break of the 200 would likely be a very bad thing at this point in time.  I really don't know what happens tomorrow.  The VIX is above 20 which could entice some buyers.  I would think the bulls have to come out of the starting gate with some strong buying to make that happen though.  The downside of the VIX above 20 is that it might be spiking up again which could send the market considerably lower from here.  A lot might depend on how overseas markets trade overnight.   

As I expected IP took a tumble again and did not build on the previous month's bounce.


While IP did not make a new low, it dropped considerably.  Still no sign the economy is turning up.  Yellen mentioned some weakness in the labor market this afternoon.  That won't help at all.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.