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Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Daily update 6/13

Dip buyers came to the rescue in the afternoon.

SPX still closed below the 50 SMA despite the bounce off the low.  Since it closed below yesterday's low we have a confirmed break of the 20 SMA.  Breadth was -62%.  New highs dropped all the way down to 57.  New lows increased again to 47.  That is the highest they have been since coming off the Feb. low.  Not a very good sign for the bulls. 

The futures hit the 200 SMA and that is where the afternoon bounce came from.  They ended the day just slightly below the 100.   The 200 is where the last swing low started from back in May.  Obviously we did not get the same kind of bounce today.  At least not yet.  There is potential for some support here though.

The red count crept up a little bit more today.  Still below the oversold level.  But then again the market bounced pretty strongly without an oversold condition back in May.  I don't know if it can do that again or not.

Today turned the short term trend down in R2000 to join the other indexes.  We did not get the pre FED day bounce thanks to the negativity from Europe. They sold off pretty hard over there the last two days, but I don't know if they are ready for a bounce yet.  That makes it hard to say what might happen here even though there is usually an upside bias around FED meetings.  It seems brexit talk has captivated the market for now.  The FED is widely expected to do nothing tomorrow, but I am sure people will be parsing the statements for clues about July.  There could be market moving information there.  We will reconvene tomorrow night and see what happened and maybe get some idea of what comes next.


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