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Monday, June 13, 2016

Daily update 6/13

I am not big on emoji use myself and today I don't think there is even one that can quite express how I feel.  I was mowing my yard this afternoon and the entire time all I could think about was the good old days when I was a kid.  Some people say kids born today are lucky.  I get that we have all kinds of cool technology and many more things to come.  However, I would take civilization as it was when I was a kid any day over what we have today.  I had a freedom from worry that kids today do not have.  What is worse is that I don't know if future kids can ever have that freedom again.  There are so many great things going on with science and technology now.  It is such a shame that a small percentage of the population is hell bent on destroying civilization as we know it. 

The market was trying to rally from a gap down this morning when news of a new brexit poll with the exit group having a big lead sent the market lower.  It never recovered from that news.  VIX has made a huge two day move.  Some people clearly loading up on protection.  I think the market is starting to take it seriously that the Brits might actually vote to leave.

SPX closed below the key 2085 support level and below the 20 SMA.  It is still 3 points above the 50 though.  That potential double top is looking a little more ominous now.  The breadth was -75% so the selling was broad based.  New highs dropped way down to 110.  New lows picked up again to 37. 

The futures made it down to potential support at the 100 SMA.  ADX is ticking up so the down move is gathering a little bit of steam.

The red count crossed above 50 today, but is nowhere near an oversold condition.

The short term bull pressure lines got a negative cross today.  That gives the bears a little bit of an advantage.

The bears are theoretically in control again over the short term.  The spike up in the VIX shows that fear has entered the market place again.  I think it is all about the brexit vote.  That means there could be a change if the polls change.  There is a FED meeting on Wed. and in recent years the day before has had a positive bias.  It is possible the overnight news might prevent that this time.  It is also possible that people got the protection they need on today and the bounce proceeds on schedule.  I don't exactly know how to handicap a market that is pushed around by polls in another country entirely.  Here is what I know.  Today turned the short term trend down in SPX and COMPX and to neutral in R2000.  Short term bull pressure and the red count gives the bears a slight edge in the short term.  We also had a test of the Nov. high that appears to have failed.  That pattern looks like a lower double top which can be a very negative pattern.  We also have a potential shorter term double top.  The VIX is spiking up on top of it all.  There seems to be a lot of things in the air right here that could be pretty bearish.  Now that the Nov. high was tested there could be a lot more pent up selling pressure then if the earlier head and shoulders top had played out.  If the bulls don't come to the rescue in the next few days this market could be in for real trouble.


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