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Friday, June 10, 2016

Daily update 6/10

A bit of a splat there.

SPX closed back below 2100 again.  The bulls really tried this morning to keep it up there, but failed.  That is an obvious potential double top on the chart.  Breadth was -76%.  New highs dropped down to 150.  New lows popped up to 24. 

The futures closed below the 20 SMA, but rallied enough late in the day to prevent a confirmation of the break.  They are clearly back into the prior resistance zone.

The red count crossed above the green today, but is still below 50.  Quite a big move in the counts.

The weekly count chart shows a big increase in the red count.  There is also an obvious negative divergence in the green count.  It won't take much to get a negative crossover.  This is a pretty week looking chart.

SPX and the COMPX turned their short term trends neutral today.  R2000 barely kept its uptrend in tact.  The bears are threatening to take control of this market.  The bulls need to get SPX back above 2100 on Monday or the bears will likely succeed.  The next key support level is 2085.  Breaking that would make the potential double top look a lot more credible.

The dollar had quite the strong day which hurt oil and other commodities.  The dollar index just won't stay below 94.  Even so I keep seeing calls for a dollar collapse.  I just don't think that is going to happen.   The weaker the economy gets the strong the dollar is going to get and that will surprise a lot of people.  I still am not exactly sure how this will affect gold.  A big dollar rally could be a drag, but NIRP in Europe and Japan is clearly a positive.  Which will do the most to move gold prices?

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.


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