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Monday, May 9, 2016

Daily update 5/9 New Look

When I started this blog I had no idea whether I would like doing it or if anybody would read it.  Over four years later I am still at it.  Monthly page views are the best ever so I thought maybe it was time to come up with a real name.  That is something I suck at.  I got my wife involved and came up with a site name and logo.  It seems fitting to me.  My posts are more charts then text most of the time.  I truly am all about the charts.  I hope you like it.

The bulls did not have much pep today.  The market did not really build on Friday's reversal.

While SPX inched higher today the breadth was -52%.  New highs shot up to 234.  I am not really sure if it means anything that so many closed end funds are making new highs.  New lows came in at 25.  The last two days look more like a pause on the way to lower prices then a bottom.  I mentioned on Friday we were not oversold short term.  There was nothing to inspire the bulls today.  With Friday's reversal off the 50 SMA I would think they would have piled in if we were going to have a meaningful bounce from around here. 

The futures tested the 20 SMA from below.  They are down a bit after hours.  This looks like they might be turning back down.  A retest of the recent low looks probable.

The short term lines remain negative.  The intermediate lines are getting very close together now.  A down day could cause a negative crossover.  I think that would greatly increase the odds we have seen the peak of the rally off the Feb. low. 

If SPX is going to bounce off the 50 DMA it has to go up tomorrow.  That looks like the lower odds play with the lack of an oversold condition.  It looks like the sellers went back to work the last hour.  A turn down from here targets the 200 DMA as the 100 is still below the 200.


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