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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

Up 10/9/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Daily update 5/5 Global aging population

While they did not seem to want to sell into yesterday's gap down, they did not have a problem selling today's gap up.  Some people are trying to sneak out of their long positions.


SPX held the lower channel line today.  The bulls are buying the dip here, but are not willing to chase price higher at all.  The breadth was -51% after being +66% in the 10 AM hour.  Despite the selling the market did not break down.  The bulls did just enough.  New highs increased again to 160.  This is an interesting phenomenon.  I have been so busy lately I have not been able to delve into this much.  There were a lot of closed end funds whenever I have looked. 


The futures are slip sliding away.  Not much else to say about this chart.


The red count dropped a bit today.  Still below the oversold level. 

The market tried to bounce this morning with the gap up, but was thwarted by the bears.  About all I can say is the bulls kept the market from collapsing.  SPX is holding the lower channel line, but has not given us an indication it is going to bounce.  Today's low was just 3 points above the 50 DMA.  Sometimes SPX likes to bounce before hitting that MA.  Usually when it does that it ends up going back down to make contact.  I have no idea what happens now.  We have dip buyers and profit takers.  So far the profit takers are outweighing the dip buyers.  However, they do not seem to be anxious to sell.  They prefer strength and stop selling when the market gets close to breaking.  Individual traders don't normally act in this manner.  This action suggests it is pros taking profits.  The path of least resistance looks clearly down.  The bulls lack any desire to chase price higher at the moment.  I think it will take a positive catalyst to generate a bounce until we get more oversold.  Dip buyers are just active enough to keep us from getting there.

I have talked a bit about the aging population problem.  Sorry to say but old people are a drag on the the economy.  6 Charts That Show the Global Demographic Crisis Is Unfolding  I found this chart particularly startling.  I have never seen this one before.


Never in the history of the world have humans faced a situation like this.  Modern medicine has allowed many more people to get "old".  This will completely screw up socialist systems that take from the young and give to the old.  There won't be enough young people to make it work in the future.  Age demographics are set in stone (outside of a mass die off of a particular age group).  This is not a problem that can be solved without massively changing the current socialist systems.  I have to believe governments around the world are aware of the situation yet there is no talk about it with the masses.  Expect major social upheaval some day.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.