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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

? 2/22/21

Short term

Dn 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

Dn 2/22/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Daily update 5/4 The First Casualty Is Truth

Sloppy day.


SPX spent all day testing the 4/29 low.  It closed fractionally below it.  The breadth was -55%.  New highs were strong at 146, but I would guess a lot of close end funds in there.  New lows remained at 28.  SPX is at the lower channel line.  Due to the strength of the rally this would be a logical place to bounce from. 


The futures ended the day just slightly below their open.  The price bars have a lot of lower tails indicating the bulls are supporting the market.  The question is will they generate a bounce or end up bailing out. 


The red count is approaching oversold levels.  While not there yet, it is pretty close to where it was at the start of the mid April bounce. 

SPX is in an area where it could bounce at the lower daily channel.  The market is not in a short term oversold condition, but it might be enough to bounce.  A test of the 20 DMA from below would be a logical thing to do (does the market ever do the logical thing?).  The 50 DMA at 2040 would be the next important support for SPX should we continue down.  There continues to be an underlying bid in the market as mentioned before.  That makes sense based on the intermediate and long term bull pressure charts.  That is a double edged sword though.  Great for bulls if we end up breaking out on the upside.  Bad for bulls if we end up breaking down.

Durable goods factory orders still show no sign of improvement.


They are still neg. YOY.  This is an awfully long time not to be in a recession.  I would say people are still very cautious on the economy.

This article is not exactly market related.  However, it is a subject important to me.  Most days the media does an excellent job of making me feel like I am surrounded by liars and idiots.  I guess it isn't just me.  The First Casualty Is Truth

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.