If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

? 2/22/21

Short term

Dn 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

Dn 2/22/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Daily update 5/18 Industrial production

Sea change.


The FED speeches yesterday and the minutes from the last meeting today put June squarely on the table for a rate hike.  I believe that caught the markets by surprise.  The dollar reacted quite positively while commodities and stocks reacted negatively.  Last I heard FED funds futures had an extremely low chance of a hike in June.  That will surely change in the days ahead.  Lots of things may change.  SPX touched the neck line of the apparent head and shoulders pattern that has been developing and bounced.  It closed fractionally positive, but it was a weak day.  The breadth was -64%.  New highs dropped way down to 72 while new lows increased again to 36.  Today's bounce started when SPX tested the April low (2034).  That is key support.


The bulls are clearly supporting the market.  However, the bears keep selling rallies.  I can't imagine that will change with the FED talking about a rate hike in June.  A break down still seems likely.


The red count crossed above 50.  The bears getting a little more serious now.  Tomorrow will be interesting with the market just above key support.  Break or bounce time.

The latest IP data showed a bump up in April.


The question is whether that pop will be sustained or not.  If you notice the uptrend back in 2012-15 there were periodic dips, but no downside follow through.  We have already seen a couple of pops that fizzled.  Unless this data gets revised much lower it is unlikely we entered into a recession in April.  That is about all I can say for now.  If IP can establish an uptrend then the worst might be over for now.  I will be watching for that.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.