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Thursday, April 28, 2016

Daily update 4/28

Fire!  Apparently that is what Carl Icahn yelled in the crowded hedge fund theater of Apple.  You might recall a few years back he was tweeting about all the APPL stock he was buying.  He unloaded all of it for about a $2 billion profit.

Europe and Japan were down because the BOJ decided not to do any more stupid stuff at their latest meeting.  That sent the futures down pre-market.  The dip buyers rushed in to take advantage.  However, SPX ran into trouble when it approached 2100.  It actually tried twice and was turned back.
There was a bit of a run for the exits after Icahn's comments on CNBC.  Volume picked up a bit today.  Breadth was -65%.  New highs were 121.  I peeked at the new high list a bit last night and noticed a lot of closed end funds.  There was also some mining and energy stocks that had been beat down that were at 52 week highs.  There weren't many stocks that were at all time highs.  SPX closed above the key 2075 level.  Will it bounce or break?

The futures are at the bottom of the recent range.  The 50 SMA is in this area.  They still have not broken down.  The bulls need to show up tomorrow to keep it that way.

The green count dropped considerably, but not enough to get below the red count.  This is neutral now. 

The COMPX closed below its 200 DMA.  Today turned the short term trend in SPX back to neutral.  A lower close tomorrow would turn the trend down.  The bulls had a setup they could work with, but fumbled the ball.  SPX got positive during the day so the overnight news can't totally be blamed.  It clearly failed at 2100 before Icahn brought out the sellers.  The bulls need to prove they can overcome 2100 before we can talk about new highs.  If there is downside follow through tomorrow the 50 DMA around 2030 seems like a likely target.  The COMPX below its 200 DMA really makes the bulls job quite a bit harder.


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