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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

? 2/22/21

Short term

Dn 2/22/21

? 2/18/21

Dn 2/22/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, April 22, 2016

Daily update 4/22 The media

I cringe whenever I hear or see the words the U.S.is nowhere near a recession.  I have been doing a lot of cringing lately.  What I am learning is that a lot of Wall Street professionals have absolutely no clue how to read the economy or they are simply liars.  If the data in March gets revised downward or April gets worse we may already be in a recession.  I think the auto manufacturers are starting to cut back on production.  As weak as the economy is that by itself might put us into a recession.  People are way too comfortable looking at stocks and commodities and saying everything is just fine.  It isn't.  Maybe it gets fine before the year is out, but it isn't fine at the moment.


SPX tested below the trend line and bounced back above it.  Is that a successful test of the trend line?  It was a very odd day.  Despite some horrible earnings dragging down some high profile big cap stocks the market had strong breadth all day.  It ended at +67%.  However, new highs dropped again and came in at 73.  Awful. 


The futures did some testing below the 20 SMA, but at the end of the day they were above it.  That would seem to be a positive.


The green count improved enough to get back above 50.  The bulls are still in control.

Today indicates that for the moment earnings do not matter.  The broad based buying today seemed to have no fundamental reason.  Over the years I have seen a few times when it appears the market has an agenda and it won't stop until it gets there.  I am starting to think this market has an agenda to get the Dow and possibly SPX to a new high.  It could be the same group of people that orchestrated the buy pattern at the 100 SMA in previous years has decided to pump the indexes to new highs.  I could be wrong, but down moves just do not seem to have any real selling pressure behind them so far.  I thought maybe 2100 would provide some impetus for taking profits, but that does not seem to be the case.  This may be Wall Street's attempt to suck in the very last bunch of retail investors.  If there is a gentlemen's agreement not to sell beforehand we should get there.  That could easily happen next week since it is not far to go.  Then the market will have to deal with the straight shot up and the sell in May thing.  I think it will be easier for SPX to get to a new high then it will be to stay there. 

There are at least two times in history that the stock market peaked the same month or the next month after a recession started.  A new high does not mean a recession has been averted.  It may just be the last gasp.  On Monday the market should bounce from the test of the downtrend line or fall back down through it.  That should setup a test of the ATH or the 20 SMA. 

The way the media reports things these days really, really bugs me.  Growing up the mantra used to be "check the facts, check the facts, and check the facts again".  Today I don't think they check the facts the first time.  Apparently the media is getting worse world wide.  Report: Media Freedom Declined

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.