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Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Daily update 3/8 U.S. sales swoon.

Another lower high and low.

Volume was pretty light which means it did not take much selling pressure to send the index down.  So far resistance is winning.

The futures had an up and down day as the bulls and bears took turns.  In the end, the bears won the day.  The futures are still above the 20 SMA.  This is going to be interesting because the market is a lot more overbought then the last time we pulled back to the 20. 

The green count slipped a bit today,but is still in overbought territory.  

The transports, SOX and IWM were down much more then SPX today.  This looked like worries about the economy again.   That could have been from very poor Chinese economic data.  For the last few weeks the market forgot why it sold off.  It might remember again at any time.  The ECB is up Thursday morning.  I never really tracked ECB meetings, but lately it seems like the market has had a tendency to rally the day before one.  Maybe we are too overbought for that to happen this time, maybe not.  The bulls still have control, but their grip is loosening. 

Interesting article.  OK, I Get it, this Stock Market Is Going to Be a Mess  This interesting chart shows why the small cap stock P/E is exploding to the upside.

I find it interesting that U.S. sales peaked out the same time oil did.  It seems hard to believe that without a recession sales have already dropped back to Jan. 2013 level.  After a drop like that it would be hard to believe that we don't have a recession in the near future.


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