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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, March 4, 2016

Daily update 3/4 TLT

SPX finds the 100 DMA.


SPX was well above the 100 intraday, but sold off hard for a bit.  There was a late day push to get it back above the 100.  Breadth ended at +57%.  It was +72% early in the day so there was considerable profit taking in the afternoon.  SPX is really extended from the 20 SMA.  There certainly were plenty of people piling in the last several days.  I guess they think the train is leaving the station and have to get on board.  I think this is a major resistance area.  I guess we will find out


The futures actually closed above the resistance line, but not exactly in a convincing fashion.  It remains to be seen if they can stay there.

I am really curious to see if the 100 DMA stops this rally.  This may be a lot of speculation about nothing.  We will see what happens next week.  The 200 DMA is the next target if we keep going up.  We still have the issue of the ECB meeting on March 10.  Action is expected.  Will they do something that makes the market happy or sad?  If that is not enough we have the FED coming up on the 15 and 16.  They are not expected to do anything.  It is not hard to imagine the market messing around the next couple of weeks until we get these meetings over with.  Global stock markets have been feeling good along with the U.S.  They are all in downtrends so that could always change.  Oil could start down again also.  In other words, there are things that could go wrong, but they might not go wrong just yet.


This is the third time TLT has gotten above the 130 level in the last few years.  The other two times it was unable to stay there.  Is it going to be able to this time?  If so that could establish a new lower regime for longer term rates.  If it turns down again it might have a deeper correction then the last one.  That could affect interest rate sensitive stocks like REITs and utilities.  I don't have any idea what happens here, but I see the potential to have side affects for whatever the decision the market makes.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.