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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Daily update 3/30

The rest of the world celebrating Yellen telling us what we already knew caused a gap up this morning.  After a couple of  hours when the European orders were largely fulfilled a little bit of selling came into the market.  Nothing dramatic, but the futures ended up a couple of points below their open.


A bit of a toppy looking candle there.  Breadth ended the day at +56%.  It was +76% mid morning so there was considerable selling into the strength.  New highs remained strong at 222.  We closed above last week's resistance, but not exactly a strong looking pattern.  We will have to see if it can stay up here.  The futures chart does not tell us much so I am skipping that one.


The green count only increased a couple of points and remains below 50.  To push higher this needs to get back above 50.  The Yellen move may look like a thrust, but internally it does not appear that strong.


The breadth chart says the same thing.  While the breadth turned up some the last couple of days it is highly negatively divergent.

Today looked like a good top bar.  We will have to see if that turns out to be true.  The market will have to deal with actual real data like earnings next month.  Expectations have been set really, really low.  I would expect most companies will beat expectations.  However, earnings are still likely to be bad for many sectors.   At the very least I think we can expect some increase in volatility.

I heard plenty of calls for new highs today.  It would seem many people are convinced the worst is over.  I am not one of them.  I have technical signs we are in a bear market and a recession is likely in the not too distant future.  I have zero signs the worst is over.  I think a lot of people are going to be surprised.  I guess we will see.

The COMPX and R2000 turned their intermediate trends to neutral today.  Maybe the rally has finally done its job.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.