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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, March 28, 2016

Daily update 3/28

I forgot Europe closes on Friday and Monday around Easter.  With Europe closed there was not much desire to do anything in the U.S. market.


It looked like the market actually tried to rally today, but the sellers were just active enough to keep that from happening.  SPX closed several points below the open.  Breadth was +54%.  New highs increased considerably to 107.  I am not really sure what caused that.  Very light volume today shows the lack of participation.  More people should be back to work tomorrow.


The futures tried to push up through the 20 SMA, but failed.  That type of action looks like we are in pullback mode. 


Despite the fact SPX closed slightly positive the red count crossed above the green count today.  Will the bears pounce tomorrow or will the bulls show up to save the day?


The green line in the short term indicator has not crossed below the red line yet.  However, that indicator can change very fast.  A down day tomorrow might do it. 

It looks like we could be in pullback mode, but I think we need another down day to confirm that.  If the bulls show tomorrow then a retest of the rally high is likely.  If we continue down there are MAs that could provide support.  Just remember we are in a primary downtrend and those lines might only provide short term bounces.  While we might do a retest of the high the market was weak enough at the peak that this rally could be over.  We might be headed back to the lows, but it is just a bit too early to tell.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.