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Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Daily update 3/2 China downgrade

Upside follow through.

Buyers kept on nibbling away at the market today.  People throwing caution to the wind?  The breadth was +63% so the buying was pretty broad based again.  New highs dropped a bit down to 55.  New lows also dropped off and came in at 15.  For today people were not selling the losers.  The TRIN closed at .37 showing a clear sign of panic buying. 

So far no resistance is insurmountable.  ADX is finally picking up a bit, but remains low.  The futures are getting really close to the upper resistance line.  I think that will prove to be stiff, but we will see.

The green count has reached really overbought levels again.  Upside progress has been really tough to come by from these levels. 

The market is short term overbought and approaching major resistance.  All the time picking up more believers along the way.  Yesterday turned the sub intermediate trend to neutral in SPX and today the COMPX and R2000 followed suit.  The deep longer term oversold condition has been completely worked off.  How much further will the bulls be willing to push it?

This is interesting.  Moody's Downgrades China's Credit Outlook From Stable To Negative - Full Text  Since Moody's rarely downgrades a country things must be pretty bad over there.  This entire century has seen China driving global growth not the U.S.  Despite not hearing a word about this on CNBC today this strikes me as kind of important.  I am not sure exactly when the announcement was made.  I don't know if it was after the Chinese market was closed today.  If it was out during market hours today their stocks ignored it.  If it came out after their close there might be some affect tonight. It may be a non issue in the short run, but down the road this could be an early sign of increasing turmoil over there.


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