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Monday, March 14, 2016

Daily update 3/14

Pause day.

Here we sit at the 200.  Breadth was -55%.  New highs dropped way down to 42.  That is not particularly good.  New lows remained low at 7.  Volume was really light today.  Both buyers and sellers taking a wait and see approach.

The volatility has really contracted in the futures overnight data.  All is calm.  I wonder how long that will last.

The green count dropped considerably today and is back under 50.  The bulls have lost momentum.  I don't know that we can count on another thrust day up now that we made it to the 200 DMA.

The next FED announcement is on Wed.  In recent years the market has rallied the day before.  In this overbought state at the 200 I don't know if that will happen again or not.  It is hard to believe there would be much buying interest at higher prices from here without some consolidation/pullback.  It is possible nothing interesting happens until after the FED meeting.

SPX is right on the ragged edge of turning its intermediate trend to neutral.  I have heard a few bears wavering since the Friday thrust up.  While anything can happen in the market this still looks like a bear market rally to me.  It is going to take more then a rally back to the 200 DMA to make me waver at this time.  I still expect we will see new lows eventually.


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