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Thursday, February 25, 2016

Daily update 2/25


Mission accomplished.  SPX tags the 50 SMA.  Oil up, SPX up.  The breadth came in at +66% so the broad based buying continued.  The  new highs popped to 89, but remain low.  New lows dipped slightly to 39, but remain elevated.  The VIX closed at 19.11 once again giving us a sell signal.  We have arrived at the destination.  What happens now?

The futures ended slightly above their Feb. high.  Notice ADX is still on the floor.  With  no strength in the uptrend it should be easy for the bears to tip the market over if they so desire.

The green count did not go up much today.  There is a pretty sizable divergence with the 2/22 high.  Like the lack of trend in the futures this makes it easier for the bears to get control.

So everybody that rushed into shorts and placed a stop above the 2/22 high got stopped out today if they stayed in the trades.  Ouch.  Now the internals are fading so this is a much better setup for shorts.  A narrow range day tomorrow, preferably a doji bar, would add to the setup.  If the market can manage to keep going higher the next target would be the 1995-2000 area.  A strong up day tomorrow would probably send us on the way.  I just think that will be tough to achieve with the VIX already below 20.


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