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Monday, February 1, 2016

Daily update 2/1

Pause day.

It was a mixed day as some indexes closed positive despite SPX being slightly negative.  The breadth was also slightly negative.  New highs increased to 83 which is much better then they have been.  New lows dropped a bit to 37.  I don't think today told us very much.

The futures found resistance at the upper Keltner channel as usual.  Unless the market is going to roll over here that resistance should be short lived. 

The bulls are in control only in the very short term.  The longer term trends are down and the market is technically overbought short term.  The 20 DMA has a severe negative slope so SPX could easily stop right around here.  If the bulls are feeling frisky they might keep pushing prices higher though. Its rather hard to say and it probably depends on the news flow.  If a strong sell catalyst happens overnight it could be all she wrote for the rally. The VIX closed below 20 today.  As mentioned on Friday with SPX below the 200 DMA the odds now favor new lows in the index eventually.  Just a question of how high we go beforehand. 


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