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Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Daily update 1/6

Great way to start out the new year for the bears.

SPX closed below the Dec. low, but slightly above the 1/4 low.  Breadth was -73%.  New highs dropped down to 47 and new lows spiked up to 264.  Nothing positive in those stats.  We have a blue bar so price closed below the lower Bollinger band and is slightly extended.  This is the lowest close since 10/6/15.  All those buying in since then are now underwater.  Yet another layer of overhead resistance. 

The futures closed below the green support line.  The lower tails indicate bulls are trying to support the market here.  However, intraday bounces are getting sold into pretty strongly.  Because of the tails we do not have a confirmed break of support.  The bulls still have a chance here, but they are running out of runway.

The red count has reached a slight oversold condition.  The green count actually has a slight positive divergence.  A few stocks must be finding some buyers.  The red count can easily keep going up.  There is no reason to jump in here on the long side yet.

I think it is time to revisit the transports.

The weekly chart shows a break down below the Oct. low.  I can't see how this is positive in any shape or form.  The global economy still sucks.

While we have a slight oversold condition we don't have any sign a rally is imminent.  This break down turned down the primary trend of COMPX to join R2000 and SPX .  The trend table is down across the board on all time frames for the first time since I started keeping it.  The bulls are in trouble.  We have had so many warning signs it should not be a surprise to anybody.  Get prepared for higher volatility.


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