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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Daily update 1/26

Oil up, stocks up.

SPX closed inside the Keltner channel.  That is a small positive.  Breadth was a very strong +80%.  The oversold bounce stays alive for now.

The futures followed oil lower in the overnight hours then rallied when oil recovered.   The micro uptrend stays alive, but is pretty weak so far.  As I write this oil is down 2% and the futures are also lower. 

The green count rose above the red count.  The McClellan oscillator went positive today.  The market continues to work off the oversold condition. 

The market has moved back to a neutral condition.  Tomorrow is FED day again.  While they are unlikely to change policy the statement could be market moving.  Will they continue with their recent hawkish stance of more hikes to come or sound more dovish?  How do they do a 180 without losing credibility.  While they might imply rate hikes will be slow to come I don't see how they can turn right around and lay the groundwork for easing.  Between the FED wildcard and the oil wildcard I have no idea what happens tomorrow. 

Today turned the short term trend to neutral across all indexes.


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