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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, January 11, 2016

Daily update 1/11 Empty Atlantic

A little more selling, then somebody big decided to cover shorts.  That caused a bit of a scramble.


That is the first sign of life in the bulls this year.  Volume increased a bit.  Breadth was -59% which is pretty negative considering SPX closed slightly green.  Most of the buying was in big cap stocks.  New highs slipped to 10 while new lows increased considerably again to 593.  On a closing basis the .786 retrace line is still holding. 


The last few bars are showing some support with lower tails.  However, it is too soon to tell if they will bounce significantly. 

While the market is certainly oversold short term there is no sign of panic.  Remember back in Aug. how the fear was so thick you could cut it with a knife.  People are heading to the exits in an orderly fashion for now.  That is bear market like action.  The market may bounce from here, but this does not look like it would make a lasting low to me.  I think we will need some sign of panic or high volume to tease bulls into loading up again.  SPX is almost 100 points from its 20 SMA.  There is lots of room to bounce without breaking the down trend.  Lets see if the bulls can generate a short squeeze rally.

This is really something notable.  Historic First: North Atlantic EMPTY of Cargo Ships in-transit - ALL anchored along coasts; none moving

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt.  For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America.  All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port.  NOTHING is moving.
This has never happened before.  It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.

I am sure traffic is normally lower this time of year, but none at all can't be good.  This is probably a result of those high inventories we have seen in the economic data.  Sales are not picking up so orders are falling.  This should cause inventories to drop which will be a negative for GDP.  Recession odds are still rising.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.