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Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Daily update 12/23 Durable goods

The bulls came out to play again. 

SPX stuck its head just above the confluence of the 20, 50 and 200 SMAs.  There could be some resistance here.  The breadth was an amazing +79%.  Another day of buying the beat down stocks.  The new highs increased a bit to 48, but still woeful this close to the highs.  New lows dropped down to 14 as the sellers hit the vacation trail apparently. 

The futures made it up to the 100 SMA and found resistance as mentioned last night.  The question is whether it is insurmountable or not. 

The 10 DMA lines finally got a positive cross.  The MCO reached the overbought line today.  Getting overbought while making lower highs is usually not a good thing. 

The green count is the highest it has been since Oct.  I am not yet sure if that is good or bad

Are the bulls taking charge?  That would depend on whether that daily chart pattern is an ABC correction or if the double top is the more important feature.  Hence the question mark.  If point 1 had been a new high the higher odds play would be the ABC correction.  However, that was not the case.  It has been over six months since SPX made a new high.  We have a lot of warning signs that indicate we may already be in a bear market.  In bear markets getting overbought on the MCO when testing the 200 DMA from the bottom often leads to bad things for bulls.  It is up to the bulls to keep the upward pressure on.  Will they continue to buy with the market in a short term overbought condition?

Lets take a look at the latest durable goods data.  Starting with consumer durable goods.

The latest data is still negative YOY.  If you are looking for good news it is slightly less negative then last month, but negative is negative.  Next up is core capex.

This one is slightly more negative then last month, but basically in the same area.  No sign of a pick up here yet either.  The longer we stay in this negative condition the higher the odds of recession are.  The economy really needs to show a sustainable uptick.


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