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Monday, December 14, 2015

Daily update 12/14 BofA Client fund flows

Bounce into FED meeting starting?

Yet another strange day.  While SPX ended up 9 points breadth was actually -73%.  Money must have been going into the biggest of the big cap stocks.  That is likely a defensive move by money managers that must stay invested.  New highs were a whopping 4 while new lows spiked up to 625.  To add to the odd day TRIN was low once again at .52.  I had to look at that twice.  You just don't see TRIN this low with breadth so negative very often.  No sign of panic selling yet.  Just hitting the bids.  SPX managed to climb back above the support line.  Volume picked up today.  That will probably have some people talking bottom here.  It certainly looks like we could get an oversold bounce.

The futures tested the 11/16 overnight low and held.  I mentioned that low might be important.  At least for today it was.  Price got pretty extended this morning and the selling while broad based was not really intense.  The sellers ran out of steam mid morning. 

While SPX closed up a bit, the red count actually increased.  It is now in the oversold area that could bring in some dip buyers. 

It is common to rally into a FED meeting.  Maybe that will happen even if they are going to raise rates.  We are certainly oversold enough to bounce.   It all depends on the news flow now.  In the absence of bad news I think we bounce.  However, people are getting nervous to outright scared over the junk bond market.  More bad news could easily happen.

I have seen this chart a few times this year, but I have not shown it on the blog.  I was hoping to find a longer version of the chart with more history so I could tell if it is important.  However, it is getting in such bad shape I must show it.

There was rather modest institutional selling earlier this year, but it turned into a flood after Aug.  I have shown how weak the Oct. rally looked by market internals.  This chart explains that as the big boys have been selling the entire time.  Retail investors seem to be the only ones interested in buying this year.  If that does not look like a bull market top I don't know what does.


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