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Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Daily update 12/1

The first of the month lived up to its usual bullishness.

SPX broke out of its recent trading range.  Volume was nearly 10% less then yesterday though.  It was also less then the last four up days.  Not the most convincing break out I have ever seen.  We will have to see if it sticks.  Breadth was a strong +68%.  New highs came in only three more then yesterday at 99.  New lows are a still elevated 53.  A strong thrust day normally sees a noticeable increase in new highs.  Not the case today.

The futures managed to get three points above the prior overnight high of the recent trading range.  The SPX chart looks like a much stronger break out then when looking at the futures with overnight data.  It was really only a marginal new high. 

The green count is over 50, but just barely.  That is slightly less then it was on the 11/20 high.  Yet another indication that today lacked vigor.

The daily SPX chart looks like a break out, but things aren't quite that clear.  SPX broke above the 11/20 high early this morning and failed to stay there.  The market rallied again through resistance in the last hour.  Therein lies the problem.  Late day break outs are not nearly as reliable as morning break outs.  While we got the bounce I expected last night it does not seem to be particularly strong.  I have no idea if we will see significant follow through or not.  Since we closed so close to the high a small gap down should lead to a retest of today's high.  Other then that we will just have to see if there are enough buyers to keep pushing price higher.

The short term trends are all clearly up now.  Lets see what the bulls do with the ball.


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