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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 27, 2015

Daily update 11/27 Tightening credit?

Oh. Hmm.  Sorry.  It think I fell asleep.


It appears that 2089 has a very strong magnet.  That was an entire week of nothing.


This morning the futures closed the 10 AM bar below the 20 SMA, but the bulls came to the rescue.  However, all they could do was get them back up to the bottom end of the resistance zone.  Will the resistance zone or the 20 SMA fall first?

This chart shows the potential for trouble.

Source

There was a little bit of tightening after the mini crash in 2011.  However, that was short lived.  With the FED threatening to raise rates this time instead of the operation twist they did in 2011 things might be different this time.  If banks tighten long enough there will be a recession.  This round of tightening is likely happening because of the stress in the junk bond market.  It looks like that market is likely to get worse instead of better in the near term.  Default rates are rising somewhat.  It is nearly impossible for our debt laden economy to expand without an expansion of credit.  This clearly bears watching.

The market and status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.

Bob

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