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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 20, 2015

Daily update 11/20

Not as bullish as it looked.


The gap up found a few buyers until a little after 10 AM.  The sellers came out and while they did not slam the market they were hitting the bids constantly.  While the breadth was +58% the down volume was higher then the up volume.  While new highs increased to 79, new lows were higher at 126.  Today looked like a sneaky distribution day.  SPX got just 1 point above the .786 retrace level when the selling started.  This still has the potential to make a lower high here. 


Last night I mentioned the overnight high was never breached during the trading day yesterday.  Today the futures got up above that high for a while, but at the end of the day they were slightly below it.  Interesting, but inconclusive.  If we end up turning down from here on Monday it will be a lot more interesting. 


The green count got a positive cross today, but is still well below 50.  Contrast that with day 5 off the early Oct. low when the count was 81.  Despite the 3% move up there is very little vigor to the move.


The McClellan oscillator got positive today, but just barely.  On day five off the Oct. low it was a super strong 184 instead of 4.  Quite a difference.  The 10 DMA lines are still negative.

There is clear resistance here.  The breadth was +72% early in the day and the sellers just kept hammering away at it.  While the market closed higher it really did not look like a particularly good day for the bulls.  Maybe it was just option expiration shenanigans.  Internals are not particularly strong and SPX stopped at the .786 retrace level.  This qualifies as a test of the Oct. high whether we get up there or not.  It still looks like this market could tip over pretty easily so I don't know if we will make it or not.  Next week will be interesting one way or the other.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend all.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.