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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Daily update 10/10 Inventories

Pause day.

Not the strongest of a bounces after four down days in a row.  Breadth was slightly positive.  Both new highs and new lows increased slightly to 32 and 93.  Not much enthusiasm by either the bulls or the bears today.

The 50 SMA held as support today.  There is a pretty big air pocket below that on this chart.

Despite the up day in SPX the red count increased and the green count fell.  The day was slightly weaker then it first appeared.

This close to the 200 DMA I would think it would act as a magnet.  I would be suspicious of any bounce from here.

Here is a look at the latest wholesale inventories.

This ratio continues to rise.  We have already seen the ISM number drop down to 50.  The rising inventories could cut production even more.  At the very least it is unlikely to turn up significantly yet.

This next chart answered a question I was wondering about the other day.


I saw this Ford commercial talking about friends and family pricing for everybody.  All I have heard about lately is how good car sales are.  That had me wondering if things were so good why was Ford doing a major discount program.  Apparently they are producing more then they are selling and the inventory ratio rose to the highest it has been since the great recession.  It seems likely auto production cuts are coming and soon.  That will put pressure on the Chicago ISM number which was the only regional survey that was strong this month.  Those cuts if they happen will definitely send the national ISM  number into contraction.  So far everything still seems to point to weakness in manufacturing.

This is a pretty good article sent in by a reader.  Technically Speaking: Short-Term Bull Or Bearish Top

The short term trend in COMPX went neutral today.


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