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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Daily update 10/27 Durable goods

An even stranger day.


SPX tested the 200 SMA from above several times today and held.  The breadth was a very negatve -72%.  Very odd considering SPX was only down .26%.  The transports were down 2.6% while the R2000 was down 1.2%.  New highs contracted to 44 while new lows expanded to 113.  Selling of losers is picking up again.  Strength in big cap drug stocks masked a lot of weakness.  For today the 200 DMA held though.


The narrow trading range continues for now.  No thrust up or break down yet.


The green count slipped below 50% again.  The red count appears to be trending up.  The uptrend is clearly weakening, but the bulls still have the ball for the moment.

There is not so much talk about the FED meeting this time.  I don't think anybody thinks there will be a rate hike.  What they say about the economy might move the market though.  Do they acknowledge the weakness or do they continue to talk like they want to hike rates this year?  Despite them not making a move it might turn out to be an interesting announcement. 

Can SPX get another upside thrust or not?  I don't think the 200 SMA will hold many more days without it.  The internals are really getting droopy.  Watching and waiting at the moment.

The latest durable goods data came out today.  Here is the core and capex YOY charts.


Both of these charts show weakness continues.  The capex chart now at the worst levels of this entire recovery.  ECRI says that 2012 was the weakest non recession in the U.S. ever.  The data shows we are challenging that weakness now.  Can we get lucky and avoid a recession again?  The majority of data in Oct. points to continuing weakness in the U.S. economy.  There is still no sign of a resurgence.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.