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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Daily update 9/23 Bull market in cash

Consolidation day.


The futures tanked overnight on poor manufacturing data out of China, but buyers stepped in and had them positive by the open.  SPY got a bit above yesterday's high before sellers showed up and knocked it back to negative.  However, sellers were not very aggressive and yesterday's low was never challenged.  Volume was very light as  neither buyers or sellers were very motivated.


The dip and retrace in the night is evident on the chart.  Bad data out of China failed to have any lasting effect.  I am not sure how long that will last.  At any rate the end result was that the futures closed below the lower Keltner channel then immediately came back in.  That is often a good sign of a short term bottom.  I am not sure what that might mean in this situation.  Bulls have not shown any enthusiasm will they step up now and buy?  I don't have a clue.  News flow might have a lot to do with it.

This market has been mostly unpredictable for many months as it gets whipped around by news.  While the bears appear to be in control they only seem to be motivated to sell when there is negative news that causes a big gap down.  The rest of the time they sit back and wait for a bounce.  Once they knock it back down a bit they stop selling.  Since I don't have a crystal ball I have no idea what will happen tomorrow.  

I got a kick out of this article.  The Bull Market in Cash Is On  Check out this chart.


Those are the facts.  Last April I showed  this chart from GMO.


GMO was expecting low or negative returns across a lot of assets.  So far so good. At some price there is always an alternative (ASPTIAAA).  Pronounced asp tee ahh.  How do you like my new acronym to replace TINA (there is no alternative).

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.