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Friday, September 11, 2015

Daily update 9/11

Another weak bounce day.

SPX was up almost as much today as it was yesterday.  Yet the breadth came in at -51%.  Somewhat weaker then yesterday.  New highs came in about the same at 10 while new lows increased again to 143.  It appears the oversold bounce from the crash low is running out of steam.  That big reversal from two days ago looms large.  When we have a day like that it is extremely important to conquer that high.  Until we do there is a shadow upon the market.  We have a clear resistance zone and the last time price got there the sellers were quite ambitious.  That can make bulls hesitant to push prices up that far for fear of getting clubbed again.  There is no sign selling is exhausted here.  It looks like people are just hoping and waiting (praying) on a higher price to unload.  If we don't get there they will lower the sell price eventually.

I mentioned last night it might be slightly bullish when the futures closed below the 20 SMA, but did not stay there.  They dipped below that line again last night, but once again they bounced back.  This is certainly a sloppy chart.

Next Wed. is the much anticipated FED meeting.  This is the most talked about meeting in many years.  Will they or won't they make a move.  Nobody knows.  For many years we knew what they were going to do before the meeting.  They have purposely inserted uncertainty.  It is going to be interesting with many countries and international central banks pretty much begging them to stand pat.  This is a high risk environment to make a move.  If things go south they will get some blame if they do something.  The intraday volatility is starting to die down which is normal as we approach the apex of the daily triangle pattern.  It may continue that way until after the meeting unless the dip buyers have exhausted their dry powder.

The market and sector pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.


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