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Monday, August 3, 2015

Daily update 8/3

Starting the month off on a down note.

There was quite a bounce going into the close.  Despite the intraday dip below the 100 SMA we ended the day back above it and the 20.  Breadth was -60%.  New highs dropped down to 71 while new lows picked up to 174.  Not exactly the prettiest of charts is it.

The futures survived a trip below all the MAs.  We now have 10 bars since the close above the 18 SMA and we still don't have confirmation.  Lots of indecision.

It dawned on me today I had the software that could chart the indicator I talked about yesterday with the green and red prices bars on SPX stocks.  Here is a look at the current daily chart.

The bulls have more green bars on the daily charts, but are still below 50%.  We have not had a 70% reading since back in March.  The last couple of years we had lots of readings above 70.   Here is a look at the weekly chart.

The bears have an edge on the weekly chart.  This is a very unusual condition to go this long with more bearish charts and not be heading lower in price. 

There does not appear to be much of anything holding the market up.  While SPX has not dropped yet I think we are getting close to the point where it will unless the bulls get a move on it.  The early July low had some bearish sentiment and an oversold condition.  It seems to me that should have propelled SPX to new highs.  Bulls have been patient and holding on, but there is always a limit to their patience.  The current bounce may be over, but we did not quite do enough damage to clearly give the bears the edge yet.  Tomorrow might decide whether we continue the test of the highs or not.


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