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Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Daily update 8/25

Inside day.  That is pretty odd considering SPY started with a nearly $6 gap up.  You don't see that every day.

SPY opened on its high so the selling started right away.  The sellers really got traction in the afternoon.  SPX ended up testing yesterday's low by the close.  The breadth was -52% which was not really in line with the amount SPX was down.  Breadth started the day +88% so the selling was pretty intense.  New highs were a whopping 2 while new lows dropped way down to 248.  The TRIN closed over 3 which may help bring out some buyers.  However, we closed so close to the lows again I can't really say whether the selling is exhausted yet.

The futures show some signs of stabilization.  Not enough here to tell if they will form a bottom in this area yet though.  Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

The very high number of new lows yesterday has some people thinking it was a capitulation day.  It didn't feel like that to me.  I think it more likely the selling is just beginning.  I don't know exactly how this will play out.  However, I have never seen the market in a weaker condition at the highs then we had this time around.  It is possible bounces are muted.  This market made it difficult quite often over the last few years for people to get on board with all the V bottoms.  I have to wonder if it won't make it equally difficult to let people out.  A mature trader commented that he could find no law that says you must be invested all the time.  I think it a very wise remark about now.  The NYSE composite, the Dow, and the transports closed below their Oct. lows which turns their primary trends down.  While SPX, R2000, and the COMPX have not done that yet is it really likely they will be able to hold on?  The odds we are in a bear market seem to get higher every day.


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