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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, July 27, 2015

Daily update 7/27 Emerging markets breaking down?

A little more down, but not much selling into the morning's gap down.


SPX touched its 200 SMA this morning.  We finally got an oversold buy signal as well.  After chopping around all afternoon there was a retest of the morning low and bounce late in the day.  That might be a setup for a bounce into the FED meeting on Wed.  It has become common to gap up the day before the meeting these days.  The breadth was -70%.  New highs dropped down to 18 while new lows spiked up to 476.  That seems like a of lows with SPX still above the 200 SMA.  Volume has been considerably above average for four days in a row.  All the while there has been no sign of panic selling.  An orderly run to the exits?


China crashing again kept the futures under pressure before the open.  We are getting pretty far away from the 18 SMA.  That is a condition the market has not liked this year.  ADX is climbing fast with this move down.  It will take more work now to get bullish again.

This looks like it could be a bounce setup.  SPX hit the 200 DMA and generated an oversold buy signal at the same time.  However, there has been considerable damage done so I would expect any bounce we get at this point to be of the dead cat variety.  I think we will be hearing about China quite a bit.  That stock market has the tendency to go straight up and straight back down.  With the government taking all kinds of crazy actions I am sure any foreign money that went in is dying to get out.  Equities world wide are under pressure.  I don't think this is going to be just a quick pullback and be over with.  Lets see if the bulls show up tomorrow.

This is an interesting article on how South Korea might be a good leading indicator for the global economy.  Chart Of The Day: Emerging market equities are breaking down  This interesting chart is in there.


The south Korean export data is probably highly affected by the slow down in China.  The global economy may be in the worst shape it has been in since 2009.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.