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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, July 24, 2015

Daily update 7/24

That was the pitter patter of little feet running for the exit.


Volume was heavy for the third day in a row.  SPX closed below the key 100 SMA.  That has been the buy signal of choice for over 2 years now.  Will it be good for at least a bounce this time?  The breadth was -71%.  The new highs dropped way down to 36.  New lows shot up to a whopping 426.  That is the highest since back in Oct.  People have really been selling their losers lately.  The TRIN came in at 1.52.  No real sign of panic selling.  It was just orderly hitting of the bids all day long. 


The futures ended with blue price bars which are usually good for a bounce the next trading day.  Today took the MACD negative.  Notice ADX is rising again.  The -DI line crossed 35 once again.  I can't believe how many times that has happened this year.  That is often good for a bounce also.  Needless to say this chart is fully bearish.  That means the bulls now have work to do to get control back.  If we bounce the 200 SMA could be resistance, but if not the 18 should be.

Today turned the short term trend down in both SPX and COMPX.  One of the pillars holding the market up has been biotech stocks.  They took a severe hit when BIIB's earnings were very disappointing.  That sector is clearly in a bubble so there could be repercussions beyond today.  That might dampen enthusiasm in dip buyers in general.

The XOI closed at a new low since its peak last year.  It seems likely oil will be testing its spring low before too long.  I still don't believe we will see the bottom in oil until production gets shut in by big players such as OPEC.  I would not be surprised to see it in the 30s eventually.

The bears appear to be in full control.  While a bounce is probably due I don't see anything here that looks like this would be an important low.  We are not really very oversold and VIX is very tame.  We had a very good condition at the last low and we still failed to break out to new highs.  That seems pretty negative to me.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.