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Monday, July 13, 2015

Daily update 7/13

Yea, Greece is solved.  Well maybe.  I wonder how the Greek government can sell a plan that is worse then the one the people voted on and overwhelmingly rejected.  It should be interesting to watch.

SPX stopped just below the 50 SMA.  A close above today's high would turn the short term trend up again.  The breadth was +69%.  New highs increased to 119.  The highest in a few weeks.  New lows remain elevated at 79 though.  The 6/29 big gap down was completely filled today.  That might provide some resistance.  The last couple of bounces made it up to the upper Keltner channel.  Can this one make it?  That line is at 2121 now, but is moving down. 

The futures made it up through both the 100 and 200 SMAs today.  There could be some resistance here at the 200.  They still need to confirm the move above the 200. 

The McClellan oscillator is the highest it has been since back in Feb.  That rally powered on to new highs.  The 10 DMA lines are much different this time.  They have not quite made a bullish cross yet, but will tomorrow.  They had positive crosses for a few weeks back in Feb.  I can't say whether that means anything.  Just pointing out the difference.

I have no idea what happens now.  The way the low was made I can't see any evidence that indicates the sellers were finished.  If they weren't they could show up right around this level.  If they were done then we should progress up to at least the 2120 area in the days ahead.  That is unless the news flow turns negative again.  Therein lies the problem.  Has China really stopped going down?  Is the Greek issue resolved?  Are earnings going to be supportive of higher prices?  Any of those things could derail the bounce, but maybe none of them do.  Is another test of the high on the way?


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