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Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Daily update 7/1 Dollar index

Another big gap up and another close below the open on SPY.  Still some selling into strength today.

The bulls came out to play on reports of a Greece deal.  The sellers came in right after the open and pushed the market down some.  The buyers were a bit stronger then yesterday.  The breadth was +60% again.  New highs increased to 64.  New lows remain elevated at 193.   SPX managed to close above the 2070 level, but I still have my doubts it will be able to stay there. It has not got up to the 6 SMA yet so there is more room on the upside.

We have white price bars so we have worked off the extreme short term over sold condition.  Still some room up to the 18 SMA.

We are still in a news driven environment.  That makes it even tougher then normal to predict what is likely to happen tomorrow.  We also have the employment report coming in early since the market is closed Friday.  We still have more room for the oversold bounce to continue tomorrow.  Any bit of bad news could send us on down again though.

I want to take a look at the dollar index tonight.

The dollar index is rallying from a higher low in this correction pattern.  It confirmed a break above the 50 SMA yesterday.  However, it has run into resistance at the 100.  The real key resistance is marked by the red line.  Getting above that should set up a test of the high.  If the dollar has bottomed it could be somewhat negative for oil and other commodities.  I don't know if it would be a worry for stocks or not.  However, if it ends up breaking out to new highs I think it would be.  I have seen plenty of calls for a top in this thing.  I just don't see that right now.  It looks like it will eventually go to new highs.  I have heard many people comment that new highs in the dollar is on their worry list.  I will be keeping an eye on this.  In the mean time watch those energy positions as they could be affected.


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