If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Daily update 6/25 P&F chart

Downside follow through.  Since we started with a gap up the selling was not overnight news induced.  On top of Greece worries people seem to be noticing the transports are seriously breaking down.  Funny how things don't matter until all of a sudden they become important.


SPX closed slightly below the 20 SMA.  Are we headed back to the bottom of the channel?  Breadth was -62%.  Since we started with a gap up and positive breadth that was a pretty strong turn around.  New highs came in at 84 close to yesterday's number.  However, new lows shot up to 108.  Those stats would seem to indicate we are in pullback mode again.


The futures closed below the 100 SMA.  We don't have confirmation of a break yet though.  We also don't have any kind of an oversold condition either.  We could always get a bounce from the 50 SMA.

We have not had enough selling yet to classify any of the indexes as a short term down trend.  However, internals sure are weak.  That last pullback dinged them rather hard, and this bounce did little to repair the damage.  Here is the number of SPX stocks above their 200 MA as an example.

 
Some article I read talked about 60 being the point where the author starts to worry about the market.  We are there for the second time in the last couple of weeks.  I have spent a little time studying the last 15 years or so of this indicator and it appears it might work pretty well as a sign to hedge long exposure.  It looks like the bulls are on the ropes here.  After two down days in a row they might try to rally the troops tomorrow.  If not things might start to get a little dicey.  A weak bounce is not likely to help the bullish case.  They need to show some strength.

A blog reader (tnx Rick) was kind enough to send a link to this chart and noted support levels at 2070, 1990, and 1830.  Here is a marked up chart.


My studies of P&F charts are are severely lacking.  This chart presents a clear picture of where support is likely to be though.  Maybe I need to get a little more familiar with them.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.