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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Daily update 6/23 Durable goods

ZZZZZZ.  They were a bit excited for the new highs in the COMPX and the Russell2000.  They are also hot to trot on the financials on TV.

Back to back doji bars on SPY.  Today was an inside day and a very narrow range.  This market has tended not to go much further after a narrow range day at the highs.  It might take a few more days before a pullback, but the upside could be tough to come by.  SPX hasn't quite made a new high yet.  There is a serious lack of buying interest up here.  I still think it has a lot to do with not getting a good oversold condition to start a rally with.  Buyers rush in too quick on the pullbacks.  Then nobody is interested in chasing it higher.  New highs dropped down to 146.  New lows actually increased to 51.  Still way to high for a launch.  Breadth was +56%.

The futures have stalled over the last few bars at resistance.  Are we going to go or reverse?  The ADX is still falling.  That kind of makes predicting an upside break out a bit tough.  I think it will take some positive news event. 

While most indexes were up the number of SPX stocks above their 50 and 200 DMAs actually fell.  Not a very good vote of confidence for the bulls at this stage of the bounce.  I will be watching for a close below 2110 as a bull/bear pivot.  In the mean time lets see what the bulls have.

There was nothing particularly good in the core durable goods number this morning.

Yet another month of negative YOY comparisons.  This chart does not look like a particularly good time to be talking about a rate hike.  Here is a look at the core capex chart.

This one is a little less negative YOY then last month, but still nothing to write home about.  The pundits are talking the economy up, but I just don't see it.  While we are not in a recession, I don't see any sign of major improvement going on.  It still looks like a bit of a soft patch.


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