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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Daily update 6/10 Stealth bear market

The bulls showed up as expected.  They got a little help from yet another rumor about Greece.


That was quite the short squeeze.  The breadth was +68% which is exactly what it was on the 5/27 big up day.  That one turned out to be a one day wonder on the upside.  There were 125 new highs and 83 new lows.  New highs were almost double the number on 5/27.  However, now lows were also almost double that day's total.  Volume was very close to the same.  Nothing stands out as a sign we are ready to attack the highs.  This may turn out to be another one day wonder.  We will have to wait and see what they do over the next couple of days. 


The futures ran into the 100 SMA and stopped.  We have worked off what oversold condition we had.  Now it is up to rally chasers to send us higher.  If they don't show up then down we will go.  I don't know of any change in the fundamentals.  Today's news was irrelevant in that department.  Unfortunately I am not a mind reader.  All I know is we have not done enough on the upside yet to say we are going higher.

Will the bulls come out and play again tomorrow or not?  I think they need to show some upside progress here.  There are plenty of negatives still hanging out there technically.  The bulls need to prove they mean it this time. 

I heard a guy on TV say that 20% of the SPX stocks are 20% or more off their 52 week highs.  If SPX was down 10% or more that would not be so unusual.  But with the index within spitting distance of a new high that is a big red flag.  This bull market is getting even thinner then I realized.  I took a look at the broader Russell3000 index and found about 35% of its stocks are down 20% or more.  That is how bear markets start.  I have mentioned a number of times about how exhausted the market looks.  Its clearly running on fumes and it looks like those fumes are probably about to run out.

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.