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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Daily update 5/19

No upside follow through yet again.  SPX stuck its head above yesterday's  high, but failed to stay there.

Volume picked up a bit today.  At this position that might not be a good thing.  Despite a slight upside gap this morning breadth was negative right from the start.  It ended at -58%.  New highs increased a bit to 125.  New lows also increased to 41.  Once again way higher then normal when making a new high.  The way the market keeps changing direction this year odds are probably pretty good we are reversing to the downside again.  A late day rally kept SPX above the break out level, but just barely.  There was clearly a lot more interest in selling then buying at these levels today.  I think it will be a very tough slog to move higher.

Not much new to say on this chart.  The ADX is on the floor indicating we have no trend.  A downside reversal could happen pretty easily here.  Will the bulls show up tomorrow to save the day?

I am starting to see quite a bit of talk about the transports lagging way behind.  I think it is making some investors a bit uneasy.  I believe if we fail this break out selling pressure could pick up considerably.  The dollar index had quite a strong day.  It is looking like it may have reached the bottom of its correction.  Oil and many other commodities got hammered pretty hard.  Those prior trends might be kicking back in.  I have heard much talk that a rising dollar could be negative for stocks now that people have seen how revenue is being affected.  While the move in stocks was miniscule today things happened in other markets that may end up having a big impact on SPX.  If we see downside follow through in stocks tomorrow we are likely headed south again.


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