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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, April 24, 2015

Daily update 4/24 More poor factory orders

SPX makes a new closing  high by .3 points.  Yes, it was .3 points not 3.  That should bring out the break out players.


It was a very mixed day with a number of key indexes negative including IBB.  Breadth was dead even.  New highs dropped from 129 yesterday down to 106.  That with a new closing high on SPX is rather pitiful.  I still don't see any sign of momentum building that is going to carry this market much higher.


We finally got a positive DI cross, but it is so small you have to strain to see it.  This may end up being a bounce cross if we turn back down next week.  Not much more to say.  We await a decision by the market whether this is going to be a failed test of the high or not.

Today did not help the picture at all as internals were very weak.  They always say the most bullish thing a market can do is go up.  Of course that is true, but before every bear market there is always one last high.  The lagging indexes need to pick up some steam or this market will turn south.

The economic data continues to be soft.  Factory orders came in today and once again they were not good. 



For the third time in this recovery core capital goods is negative YOY.  We had soft data in 2012 that made me wonder if we were headed for a recession.  However, we managed to avoid it.  Some people think it was QE.  The FED's own research indicates QE barely affects the economy.  I think it was Hurricane Sandy.  There was a massive rebuild effort needed because it hit such a highly populated area.  If the soft data continues the outcome might be different this time.

The market and sector pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.