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Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Daily update 3/10 Consumer goods new orders crash

Another smack down.  Here is a look at SPX.

SPX closed below the 50 SMA and the 2011 trend line once again.  It ended the day just a few points above the 100 SMA.  Breadth was -71% and new lows outnumbered new highs 129 to 29.  That was some broad based selling.  TRIN closed at 2.6 for a little panic.  SPX has a blue bar indicating it closed below the lower Bollinger band and is extended a bit short term.  That might be a high enough TRIN reading to bring out some bargain hunters in the morning.  We are kind of in no mans land here as far as an important low goes.  Since the 100 DMA pattern started it has taken a close below the MA to make a low.  Since it took three attempts to make the last low I have to wonder if the 100 will catch it this time.  Lets have a look at the futures chart.

This has been some downtrend as ADX is going through the roof.  The futures closed below the 200 SMA.  This is a good bounce point.   It is pretty rare to slice through the 200 and keep going.  If that happens people really, really want out.

With the high TRIN and slightly extended price the odds favor a bounce in the morning if the news flow permits it.  It might have a little more enthusiasm then we saw yesterday.  However, this does not look like we are in a place to expect an important bottom.  A two day bounce is possible though.  Today left a pretty big gap up above the market might want to fill.  I don't really know what caused the big gap down.  They were trying to tell me it was because of the dollar being up big.  The dollar has been flying up since last July without even touching its 50 DMA once in all that time.  You can't get a stronger rally then that.  In all this time investors did not notice it until today?  Really.  They always say it don't matter til it matters.  Maybe that was it and now the dollar will matter.  Hard to say.  This market has had a very short attention span when it comes to anything bad.  It will take a little time figure out if that has changed or not.  In the mean time lets see if the bulls can get a bounce going tomorrow.

I guess the only people in this country that can afford to buy new stuff were working in the energy industry.  Check out this chart.

This series started crashing back in Oct. so it is not just cold weather related.  I guess the crash in oil is not helping consumers as  much as some of the pundits proclaim it would.  The only comparable spike down was in 2008 during the Lehman panic.  We obviously do not have that kind of situation now.  It almost looks like the global economy might be slowing much faster then people think.  I am curious to see if this data rebounds or is a sign of trouble ahead.


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