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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Daily update 2/24 Equity / money market asset ratio

Yellen told us it would be June at the earliest before rate hikes would begin.  That was enough to entice a few buyers to chase price.  Here is a look at SPX.


Not much new to say really.  The slow creep up continues.  Will it end with a splat like in Dec. or will it be different this time?  Here is a look at the futures chart.


The futures had an extraordinary low range of only 3 points overnight.  We are getting very extended from the 100 SMA now.  So far nobody has been anxious to sell so up we go.  Not much new here either.

I am still going to be watching SPX 2100 on the downside. 

This is an interesting chart. 


One thing this chart shows is that people are heavily invested in equities even if Wall Street keeps trying to convince everybody otherwise.  I have disproved the most hated bull market in history meme a number of times.  This is just another bit of proof.  Looking at the history of this indicator it appears to be flashing a caution sign.  It would appear some people are taking money off the table.  With many indexes at new highs it is not out of fear.  Is that smart money selling at the highs?  It is rather interesting to say the least.

I mentioned last night that complacency is high.  I actually heard a guy on TV mention he was wondering how many 4-7% pullbacks it was going to take before people figure out that is all the market is going to go down.  Sometimes I just have to laugh at some of the things I hear.  Bullishness seems to be running rampant. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.