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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Daily update 2/18 Lacking conviction

Slow creep to nowhere.  Here is a look at SPX.

We did not quite get that second close at 2100.  The futures opened down a bit this morning, but there was no significant selling pressure.  We tested down to the Dec. high again today and bounced.  However, today's bounce had less vigor as we did not test yesterday's high.  Breadth was slightly positive, but only after the FED minutes came out at 2 PM.  New highs were down to 132.  Not exactly a sign of increasing strength.  There was no buying interest above 2100 today.  Here is peek at the futures chart.

We can see the futures have stalled in this area.  Not surprising given the overbought condition.  The question as always is whether this is a consolidation to go higher or a top.  So far we are holding above the Dec. highs, but have not really pushed through decisively.  Will it or won't it?  Lets take a look at IWM.

IWM is at new highs.  However, look at that volume on the break out and two days since.  Hmm, not so much conviction showing up there. 

I have yet to see or hear anybody calling for a top.  Even some of the usual skeptics don't seem to be skeptical at the moment.  If this turns out to be a top it will catch a lot of people by surprise.  I will be watching the Dec. high area of 2090-2093.  A close back below there would constitute a break out failure.  I see a lot of complacency, but I don't see a lot of conviction in the technical picture.  I guess we will see what happens.


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